016 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 58W TO 07N57W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA AND COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ANALYSES AND A MAXIMUM OF 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AT THAT LEVEL. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN 55W-61W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 04N33W TO 03N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 24W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 98W THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE U.S. PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA. THIS WELL- AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN AS WELL. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE OVER THE U.S ATLC SEABOARD...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N TO MOBILE BAY AND THEN W-NW TO THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE YET A LOWER DEWPOINT...DRIER...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS PROVIDING OVER AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MOST OF THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-85W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 08N/09N. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF 16N70W AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 64W. THE NE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 22N60W RESULTING IN THE INCREASED CONVECTION. E-NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE ISLAND WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING TO THE EAST OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF 72W AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. OVERALL SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BY SATURDAY SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LIE ACROSS THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES TO 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...MUCH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N76W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N57W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 22N60W. FARTHER EAST...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 45W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W TO 27N37W TO 23N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN
